MSTR to BTC Correlation and Beta
How tightly MicroStrategy (MSTR) tracks Bitcoin, and how much it amplifies bitcoin's moves — measured as rolling Pearson correlation and OLS beta on daily returns.
What beta above 1 means for MSTR holders
Correlation measures direction: how consistently MSTR and Bitcoin move together. A correlation near 1.0 means they almost always rise and fall on the same days; a lower reading means MSTR is being driven by something other than bitcoin — earnings, index flows, or moves in its premium. Because MSTR is fundamentally a leveraged bitcoin holder, the correlation usually sits high but rarely pins at 1.0.
Beta measures magnitude. It is the slope from regressing MSTR's daily returns on Bitcoin's: a beta of 1.0 means MSTR moves one-for-one with BTC, while a beta of 2.0 means a 1% bitcoin move has historically coincided with a roughly 2% MSTR move. MSTR's beta to bitcoin generally runs well above 1 because the company funds its bitcoin purchases with debt and preferred stock — that structural leverage amplifies bitcoin's returns in both directions.
For a holder, a beta above 1 is the whole point and the whole risk: on green days MSTR tends to outrun bitcoin, and on red days it tends to fall harder. Beta is not constant — it climbs when the premium to NAV expands and leverage builds, and compresses when the premium narrows or the balance sheet de-levers. Correlation and beta together explain why buying MSTR is not the same as buying bitcoin, and why the two performance lines diverge over time. The rolling windows above use daily closes aligned on common trading days, so MSTR's weekend and holiday gaps never distort a window.